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Description
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This figure presents the sensitivity analysis of the BalatonUV–Eq emission model, illustrating the relative influence of standardized input parameters on the modelled daily discharge of organic UV filters (ΣUV_day) into Lake Balaton.
Sensitivity ranking was derived from standardized regression coefficients (SRC) obtained from a linear regression model fitted to z-score standardized input variables (Φ, Γ, Π, Ω, Δ, Ψ) across 729 full-factorial parameter combinations (3⁶ design). Absolute SRC values quantify the relative contribution of each parameter to the variability of the model output.
The plot visualizes the ranked parameter influence, demonstrating that treated skin surface area (Π), number of bathers (Φ), and application frequency (Ω) represent the dominant drivers of sunscreen-derived OUVF emissions, whereas wash-off factor (Ψ) and sunscreen composition parameters have comparatively lower influence within realistic regulatory ranges.
This sensitivity framework enhances transparency of the BalatonUV–Eq model and provides quantitative evidence for the dominant behavioural determinants of recreational UV-filter emissions in shallow freshwater systems. |
